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Safin announced in the beggining of the season that he could retire if does not obtain good results this year. The bookies react immediately like Marat doesn't care about tennis or had forgotten how to play. The same happened with other first-class players when them announced their retiring from tennis.

But Bjorkman, Jiri Novak (don't even know if he is officialy out of tennis) or even Santoro continue getting victories with odds over 3,00. I remember Novak defeating Murray in Tokyo 2006 or getting victories over Clement, Srichaphan or Malisse in the USOpen or Bjorkman winning important matches in 2008. Safin itself reached Wimbledon semis last year against the odds.

Ok, Monfils is fauvorite in front of Safin because of motivation, age, ranking and H2H (2-0 up the french) but 3,75 is too much value for me.

Discuss in forum (1 entries)

As you probably know Dent comes from a 2year inactivity due to several back surgery (three) (retired week 8/2006 in Rotterdam (C.Rochus) and come back in week 22/2008 playing C.Mamiit in Carson Challenger).

Last week he played in Indian Wells defeating Diego Junqueira and losing to Jurgen Melzer. I saw the last match against the austrian and found Dent heavy, slow and without weapons (except for the service). You know Dent playing style is serve and voley (one of the last players).

Against the austrian he hardly could not win any point from the baseline except for the classic unforced errors of Melzer and arrived late to voley in almost every ocassion. As a result he lost his serve four times during the match. Do not see the speed of his serve but i suppose is not the one he got before the injury. No credit for the last victories of Dent (Greul, Malisse, G. Lapentti, Junqueira, Dabul and Cipolla) challenger level players except Malisse (out of form because of his injuries). Almagro with an excellent baseline play and good passing-shot will have chances on Dent's serve and, as in Indian Wells, the american will probably lose in front of the first real rival.

The doubt about Almagro inactivity since clay american tour makes me not to use complete stake.

Classic odds set on the basis of the standings. Bookies completely ignore the power of the teams and clearly make a mistake. Unicaja is no longer the irregular team of the first rounds of ACB and Euroleague (remember two of their three defeats in Euroleague came in overtime). Unicaja is 5-4 in Spanish league after 4 consecutive victories and reached the first victory in Euroleague last week (against Olimpia). Probably Unicaja has started slower because the team have no need to fight for Spanish Cup spot (Cup will be held in Malaga their home town) and because of the absence of Marcus Brown and Daniel Santiago (two key players last season). Anyway is not common to set a 9.5 handicap on a team which have a roster with Jiri Welsh, Carlos Cabezas (world champion), Berni Rodriguez (world champion), Erazem Lorbek and Marcus Brown and Daniel Santiago back on the road. Ok, Panathinaikos is a great team (4-0 in Euroleague) and have home advantage but remember last season when Unicaja won in Athens. For the most brave Unicaja victory (5.75) is great value.

Cleveland 7-3 Memphis 2-8

Grizzlies are missing Pau Gasol and Shane Battier too much. The good results of the team last season was based in its extremely good defense and the good offensive performance of Pau. This year Memphis has lost its best defender Shane Battier (traded to Houston) and is without its best offensive weapon (Gasol will probably be back in December). The result is that they conceed 97.5 points per game (too much for Fratello´s team). They score 94 ppg, that is more than last year due to the transition to a faster style of play more adapted to the players in the roster. Anyway players like Mike Miller and Eddie Jones are missing the extra attention of the rival defense on Gasol (which provided them with plenty of open shots). Just one detail is enough to sum up the situation. At the moment Chucky Atkins is the best scorer of the team. Last night they defeat Orlando taking advantage of the relaxation of the Magic in last quarter and of the excelent performance of Hakim Warrick and the rookie Kyle Lowry. Without fan support and playing in front of a solid team like Cavaliers I don´t think they can repeat such a "miracle" and a double digit defeat should be the logical outcome.

Preseason MIAMI 2-5 , CHICAGO 6-2

First match of the season with the last champion involved in it. MIAMI roster without changes (no draft picks and just Shandon Anderson out of the last year roster). Unlike other leagues an sports, preseason results must not be taken into account (lots of minutes for the new players and those who are not playing a big role in the season). But they are a veteran team and every team of this kind should have learned from Detroit last year disaster. An in-form team during the whole regular season could have problems at play-off time. Pat Riley have probably designed a plan aimed to reach the best form near the play-off and with this kind of roster this means a slow start. Heat probably will not have problems to lead the weak Southeast Division even without playing 100%. Last year they obtained 63% victories and lead by 10 to Washington. So tomorrow we can expect a relaxed team (they will receive their rings before the game) with an out-of-form Shaq (probably overweight) and without Jason Williams (sidelined).

In front of them the young and athletic Bulls will be hungry to defeat the champion. More changes in Chicago. IN (Ben Wallace, P.J.Brown, Howard Eisley, Adrian Griffin, Andriskevicius) OUT (Piatkovski, Chandler, Songaila, Othella Harrington, Jannero Pargo). Bulls keep their main pieces (Hirnich, Gordon, Deng, Nocioni) And add "Big Ben" Wallace to improve their rebounding abilities. Spread +6.5 should be enough and a Bulls victory must not be ruled out.

Something wrong is going on the play of Davydenko. I agree that he is a great player with superb shots and reached excellent results last season especially on clay. But Hernych, Soderling and Karlovic have won Davy in last three weeks of clay season. Three of them with odds over 4. Ok Spadea is not a great claycourter but none of the names above are. Vince lost last week in Barcelona against Costa who was playing the last tournament of his career but without pressure, Albert played the best tennis of the last two years (also defeated Hrbaty and nearly Ferrero). If such a "claycourters" won Davy, why not Spadea.

First match of play-off in Euroleague and bookies have a clear favourite in this game. I don??t think so. Of course Pana as local team, could be considered as a favourite but not with this odds. Tau is in great form and come from a great victory in Spanish ACB (away over R.Madrid). Pana have shown some of its weakness in Top 16 and doesn??t seem the invencible team of the group stage. It was a miracle that made greeks to take the first place of the group. Last year Tau got to the play-offs without field advantage and reached a great victory away over Benneton. Then they defeated CSKA in Moscow in the Final Four. So they are able to take great victories over clear favourites away and if Unicaja and Efes won in OAKA why Tau cannot take a victory in Athens. Great value on Tau.

Important match in the fight for the play offs. Joventut is fourth (17-8) and Gran Canaria is fifth (16-9). Joventut is weakened cause they won??t have Anagonye and Betts. Gran Canaria is a strong team in the paint with Harper Williams and Savane and should take advantage of the injuries of Joventut. Gran Canaria is 7-4 away and only one of the defeats was by double digits (11 points in Girona). My bet is GC will be able to keep the score close and even compete for the match.

Lagun Aro has become in a better team with the signings of Rancik and Stefanovic. They have recently defeated great teams as Akasvayu and Barcelona. It??s true that they have played their best games as a local team (won Unicaja, Tau, Barcelona) but I think they can compete today. Lagun Aro has stepped to the next level in which they should no longer be considered as a relegation contender but as a medium table team. Unicaja is not at their best level of the season and this fact has put them out of the Euroleague and will be without sidelined Garbajosa (their most important player). Even though the normal outcome is Unicaja to win I expect Bilbao can hold the spread.

Crucial match in the fight to avoid relegation. Malaga is nearly out of the first division, specially if they lose this match. R. Sociedad don??t usually fail to win this kind of games and today Anoeta will be completely full of supporters. In a "do or die" situation I expect the quality of the local team to be enough to win a game that is essential for them to continue in first division.